Looking ahead, the CBRN defence market’s forecast reflects moderate but meaningful expansion in size, share and industry impact. MRFR’s forecast indicates that the global CBRN defence market will reach USD 17,504.6 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.72% from 2024 to 2030.
While providing a steady growth path, the market also shows signs of evolving share dynamics: established large systems and militarised procurement will likely continue dominating share, but smaller sub-segments (civil law enforcement, simulation/training, software, emerging regions) will gradually pick up share. The industry’s forecast must be read through the lens of segmentation and regional shifts.
Forecasted shifts
- The protection system segment (wearables/respiratory) may maintain large share due to inertia and legacy procurement, but detection & monitoring and simulation/training may grow faster proportionally as threats become more complex.
- Regions such as Asia-Pacific and Rest of World may increase their share slowly as investments ramp up, gradually shifting the share away from heavy dominance by North America.
- Type segments: chemical may retain dominance in the near term, but biological and radiological types could see relatively higher growth, potentially catching up in share over the longer horizon.
- Application segments: military will hold the largest share; but civil law enforcement and emergency response may increase in relevance and thus in share within the overall market.
- Functionally: while protection remains essential, detection, decontamination and simulation/training may capture greater share of investment as sophistication and need for readiness increase.
Industry evolution
The overall industry is likely to evolve from hardware-centric to integrated system-centric. Vendors will increasingly offer software, analytics, services, training and lifecycle support, shifting the business model toward recurring revenue streams. Procurement models may shift toward bundled solutions with warranties, upgrades and support rather than one-off equipment sales. Also, the supply chain may extend beyond defence prime contractors into commercial security, public-health and infrastructure providers.
Forecast implications for stakeholders
- Suppliers should anticipate increasing competition in hardware and differentiate via system solutions and after-sales services.
- Investors should look at longer-term plays (2028-2030) and evaluate companies positioned in high-growth sub-segments rather than those in saturated core segments.
- Governments and procurement agencies must plan multi-year acquisitions for detection, protection, decontamination and training systems rather than episodic procurements.
- New entrants should focus on growth pockets (software, training, civil markets, emerging regions) rather than try to displace incumbents in high-barrier segments immediately.
In summary, the CBRN defence market forecast suggests a mature but evolving industry: moderate growth overall but meaningful shifts in share, segmentation and business models. Organisations that adapt to evolving demands — integrated solutions, new applications, software/services, emerging regions — will be better prepared for the future.
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